Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E3
0xe39a…efc1
sports · 17 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$36 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$52
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)6 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 11 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Paraguay $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+99%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $25 −$24 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$24
tech 10% −$8
other 5% +$1
finance 5% −$4
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes $2 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes $1 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes $2 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes $2 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY Yes $0 1h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay $10 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $10 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States $10 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada $16 3h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.61 · official $51.61 (match) · 28 history records