Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe39b…8738 crypto 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$52 (+1%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%60W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$198
sports 4% +$17
other 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -25.6% -32.7% 42% 39% -15.0%
≤30d 114 -25.6% -32.7% 42% 39% -15.0%
≤90d 137 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 41% -12.3%
all 137 -22.3% -29.7% 44% 41% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 41% -12.3%
10% -36.5% 37% -20.7%
15% -42.6% 31% -28.4%
20% -48.2% 22% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses60 / 77
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage49d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $113 +$28 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $101 −$13 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $127 +$37 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $128 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $76 −$14 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $46 −$35 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $62 −$42 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$28 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $72 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $144 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $164 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $87 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 671 history records