Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe39c…b1be world 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$48 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 45L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days−$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$17
politics 28% $0
other 14% +$45
sports 5% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$9
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 17 +115.3% +94.8% 53% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 33 +74.1% +57.5% 45% 9% -8.4%
all 74 +33.1% +20.4% 39% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.4% 5% -8.6%
10% +8.9% 4% -17.4%
15% -1.6% 3% -25.3%
20% -11.3% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage325d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 76¢ $53 $56 +$3 (+6%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $87 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $95 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $36 −$9 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $86 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $144 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $179 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $81 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $101 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $92 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $6 −$1 -16%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $209 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $185 −$16 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $112 −$6 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $2 +$32 +2076%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $93 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 20 $3 +$1 +33%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $6 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $262 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $81 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $1,123 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $10 +$44 +459%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 365–379 times August 8–August 15? Aug 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 10 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 08 $0 $0 +14%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 07 $76 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $53 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $87 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $87 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $96 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $95 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $84 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $56 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $28 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $15 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $47 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $22 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $69 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $9 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $9 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $92 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $92 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $92 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.99 · official $56.24 (match) · 315 history records