Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E3 0xe39c…5ec0 sports 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$568 (+20%) realized −$600 · open +$1,168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,652now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$378
sports 40% +$372
world 11% −$193
crypto 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 73 -21.9% -29.3% 29% 26% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 26% -32.4%
10% -36.1% 25% -38.9%
15% -42.3% 25% -44.8%
20% -47.9% 25% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$28 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$1,652
Realized−$600
Unrealized+$1,168
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage556d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 15¢ 58¢ $394 $1,566 +$1,172 (+297%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Team Falcons 37¢ 38¢ $65 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Team Falcons 17¢ 14¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb Jan 12 $36 −$29 -80%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 12 $248 −$157 -63%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Dec 15 $140 −$40 -29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner Dec 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 15 $196 −$196 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $71 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $181 +$270 +149%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Dec 12 $156 +$402 +257%
Will PARIVISION win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 05 $17 +$10 +56%
Flames vs. Predators Dec 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Stars vs. Rangers Dec 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Capitals vs. Kings Dec 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Canadiens vs. Avalanche Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Jets vs. Predators Nov 30 $20 +$14 +68%
Kings vs. Ducks Nov 29 $11 −$4 -31%
Canadiens vs. Golden Knights Nov 29 $3 +$5 +163%
Rangers vs. Bruins Nov 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Rare Atom (BO3) Nov 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO1) Nov 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) Nov 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Lynn Vision (BO3) Nov 25 $9 +$20 +212%
Blues vs. Capitals Nov 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) Nov 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Nov 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) Nov 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Astralis (BO3) Nov 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) Nov 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) Nov 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Team Falcons (BO3) Nov 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) Nov 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs TheMongolz (BO3) Nov 05 $14 +$39 +270%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) Nov 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Lightning vs. Avalanche Nov 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Rangers Nov 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) Nov 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Vitality (BO3) Nov 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) Nov 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) Nov 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Nov 04 $2 +$2 +89%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Nov 04 $2 +$2 +92%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) Nov 04 $3 +$4 +118%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Nov 04 $3 +$11 +380%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Astralis (BO3) Nov 04 $6 +$9 +154%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Virtus.pro (BO3) Nov 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs 3DMAX (BO3) Nov 04 $2 +$3 +203%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) Nov 04 $2 +$2 +70%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Nov 04 $7 +$18 +245%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) Nov 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3) Nov 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $237 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $66 1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 17¢ $26 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $48 5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 6d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 6d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $49 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 175d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb BUY Yes 23¢ $2 175d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb SELL Yes 4¢ $7 180d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 180d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb BUY Yes 21¢ $30 187d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 187d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 3 Winner BUY FaZe 40¢ $90 188d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner BUY FaZe 33¢ $40 188d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner SELL FaZe 34¢ $100 188d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner SELL FaZe 34¢ $0 188d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner BUY FaZe 34¢ $100 188d
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Decemb BUY Yes 13¢ $4 188d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 188d
Will FaZe Clan win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 189d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY FaZe 43¢ $125 189d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY FaZe 35¢ $56 190d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY FURIA 37¢ $11 190d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY FURIA 48¢ $10 190d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY FURIA 51¢ $15 190d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) SELL Natus Vincere 53¢ $76 190d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $31 190d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $2 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,651.77 · official $1,651.77 (match) · 446 history records