Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe39f…1621 world 28 markets active 3d ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$1
world 36% +$5
other 10% −$2
sports 6% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.6% -6.3% 33% 17% -7.6%
≤30d 7 +6.8% -3.4% 43% 29% -7.4%
≤90d 7 +6.8% -3.4% 43% 29% -7.4%
all 28 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 11% -8.9%
10% -18.7% 11% -17.6%
15% -26.6% 4% -25.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage300d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $38 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $27 +$7 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 17 $1 +$1 +41%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Aug 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 26 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 24 $29 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $36 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $30 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $26 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $25 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $24 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $27 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 84¢ $4 174d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $29 175d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $5 183d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $8 211d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 244d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $5 247d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 226 history records