Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe3a1…9755 other 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$17
politics 22% −$9
economics 7% −$3
world 4% −$2
culture 3% −$2
sports 2% +$22
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 14% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 20 -0.0% -9.6% 15% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 110 +1.3% -8.3% 12% 8% -9.6%
all 113 +1.3% -8.4% 12% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 8% -9.6%
10% -17.1% 8% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 8% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage93d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $147 $147 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $113 $113 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $6 +$6 +101%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $341 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $147 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $400 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $333 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $903 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 17 $327 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $314 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 16 $303 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $304 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $317 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $990 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $332 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $301 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $335 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $334 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $321 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 25 $309 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 20 $340 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,268 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $315 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $317 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $66 21m
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $66 1h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $71 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $71 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $147 4d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $4 4d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $6 5d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 5d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $65 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $113 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 11d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $70 11d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $70 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $67 12d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $67 12d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 17d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 18d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 19d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 19d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 20d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 21d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $72 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $72 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.43 · official $260.43 (match) · 341 history records