Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E3 0xe3a2…5520 other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$17
politics 32% −$15
sports 11% +$20
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 2% −$1
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 107 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 144 -0.8% -10.3% 8% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×9.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage129d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $223 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 29 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $170 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $392 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $192 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $237 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $388 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $427 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $684 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $253 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $190 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $232 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $232 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 29 $219 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $252 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $457 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $186 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $432 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $183 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $473 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 13h
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 36h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 21d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 21d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 21d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $26 22d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $26 22d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $189 22d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $189 24d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $246 24d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $246 25d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 25d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 26d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $170 26d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $170 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $168 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $168 27d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $189 27d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $189 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 29d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $192 29d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $192 31d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 32d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $207 32d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $180 32d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $180 33d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $187 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 430 history records