Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3a2…f3f9 politics 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$3,566 (+1%) realized +$3,566 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate15%27W / 157L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,378per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$22
14 days−$43
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$129
other 33% −$32
sports 17% +$3,724
world 4% −$26
culture 2% −$6
tech 2% −$5
economics 2% −$5
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 52 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 132 -12.0% -20.4% 5% 3% -9.3%
all 184 -4.1% -13.3% 15% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 7% -8.3%
10% -21.6% 7% -17.1%
15% -29.1% 7% -25.1%
20% -36.1% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$2,062) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$9 · ×19.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized+$3,566
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses27 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)184 / 187
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,378
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $275 $275 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $112 $112 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $282 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $4,477 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $242 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,308 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,808 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $6,554 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,351 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $2,391 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,283 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,215 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,657 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $752 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $767 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $62 +$61 +97%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,681 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $715 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $85 −$45 -53%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $2,535 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,654 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $237 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,713 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $3,269 −$5 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,397 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $315 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $357 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 26 $63 +$50 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $113 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $275 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $282 4h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $282 5h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 27h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 30h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $242 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $242 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $242 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $242 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $220 4d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $220 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $221 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $619 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $620 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $594 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $595 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $649 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $650 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $565 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $566 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $591 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $592 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $380 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $380 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $416 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $416 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $640 9d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $641 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $500.07 · official $500.07 (match) · 641 history records