Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3a6…33f0 crypto 332 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate91%285W / 29L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$3
tech 17% +$11
crypto 13% +$95
sports 9% +$51
world 9% −$152
politics 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 6% -10.5%
≤90d 136 +0.0% -9.5% 96% 4% -9.7%
all 314 -2.1% -11.4% 91% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses285 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)314 / 332
History coverage157d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $191 $191 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 68¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+43%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 16? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $690 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $300 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $190? Jun 12 $179 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $240? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 9? Jun 09 $170 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $650 on June 8? Jun 08 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on June 4? Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $460 on June 4? Jun 04 $70 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on June 4? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $700 in May? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $56 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $500 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in May? Jun 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $154 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $14 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $191 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 24h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $690 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $190? BUY Yes 100¢ $179 5d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $240? BUY No 100¢ $34 5d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $150 8d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $20 8d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Will Meta (META) close above $650 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $74 9d
Will Meta (META) close above $650 on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $23 13d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 13d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $460 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $460 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $50 13d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on June 4? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.94 · official $430.94 (match) · 773 history records