Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E3
0xe3a6…9e63
weather · 508 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$2,567 +33%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,833 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized+$1,833
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses281 / 223
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)504 / 508
History coverage70d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day48.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 504 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$102
14 days+$235
30 days+$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Yes 34¢ 51¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 37¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on April 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 11? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 23? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on May 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on April 29? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on April 30? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 18? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 27? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on May 1? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on May 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on May 3? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on May 4? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 24? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 29? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on April 28? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on April 30? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 2? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $26 +$8 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 13 $8 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +379%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? Jun 12 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +204%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $44 +$51 +116%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 11 $9 +$3 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$11 -71%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $16 −$7 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $16 +$16 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $17 +$14 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 +$15 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 8? Jun 08 $28 −$25 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $23 +$6 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$3 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $9 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 06 $29 −$13 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$1,865
crypto 1% −$22
finance 0% −$7
sports 0% +$4
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 4m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 5m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 33m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 36¢ $17 35m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +31.2% +18.7% 77% 63% +25.3%
≤30d 193 +26.9% +14.8% 66% 54% +9.2%
≤90d 504 +24.0% +12.2% 56% 47% +13.1%
all 504 +24.0% +12.2% 56% 47% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover48.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.2% 47% +13.1%
10% ← realistic here +1.4% 40% +2.3%
15% -8.4% 33% -7.6%
20% -17.4% 26% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.83 · official $25.83 (match) · 3500 history records