Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E3 0xe3ad…ac18 crypto 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$469 (-16%) realized −$465 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate85%155W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$163
14 days−$163
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$39
sports 22% −$109
other 17% −$165
world 6% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.8% -13.8% 60% 55% -29.0%
≤30d 20 -4.8% -13.8% 60% 55% -29.0%
≤90d 177 -1.3% -10.7% 87% 12% -16.4%
all 183 -3.7% -12.9% 85% 11% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 11% -25.0%
10% -21.2% 6% -32.2%
15% -28.9% 4% -38.8%
20% -35.8% 3% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$27 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$465
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses155 / 28
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)183 / 187
History coverage190d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 69¢ 60¢ $36 $31 −$5 (-14%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $36 +$13 +37%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 Jun 19 $26 +$26 +103%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $31 +$9 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 +$13 +52%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $15 +$27 +174%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $46 +$30 +65%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 +$8 +24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$11 +55%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 +$22 +61%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$14 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$47 -92%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $83 −$72 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $37 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $36 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $25 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 80¢ $49 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $25 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $34 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 SELL 51¢ $52 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 49¢ $20 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $39 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY 24¢ $26 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 30h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $31 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 97¢ $42 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $15 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $36 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $26 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $76 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $25 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.65 · official $86.66 (match) · 384 history records