Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E3 0xe3af…1ee3 crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$183 (+8%) realized +$184 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%33W / 36L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$13
14 days+$44
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$13
tech 3% +$60
other 1% −$1
politics 1% +$8
world 1% −$20
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +13.2% +2.4% 46% 46% -8.9%
≤30d 64 +18.1% +6.8% 48% 48% -7.3%
≤90d 69 +15.3% +4.4% 48% 48% -8.4%
all 69 +15.3% +4.4% 48% 48% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 48% -8.4%
10% -5.6% 48% -17.2%
15% -14.7% 45% -25.2%
20% -23.1% 43% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$32 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$184
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses33 / 36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage77d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30? No 87¢ 95¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $228 −$225 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$35 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$66 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$87 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $104 +$114 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$45 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.62 · official $21.63 (match) · 112 history records