Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E3 0xe3b0…b4d1 sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$773 (+8%) realized +$752 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%43W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$377
7 days+$460
14 days+$796
30 days+$796
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$816
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +5.7% -4.3% 46% 45% -4.7%
≤30d 90 +9.3% -1.1% 48% 47% -1.5%
≤90d 90 +9.3% -1.1% 48% 47% -1.5%
all 90 +9.3% -1.1% 48% 47% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 47% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 47% -10.9%
15% -19.2% 46% -19.5%
20% -27.1% 46% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$81 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$857
Realized+$752
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses43 / 47
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions11
Markets (closed)90 / 101
History coverage8d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 42¢ $123 $124 +$2 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ 62¢ $103 $107 +$4 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Phantom 40¢ 40¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Infinite 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 25¢ 26¢ $88 $91 +$2 (+3%)
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Remy Bertola 41¢ 42¢ $82 $85 +$3 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $83 $82 −$1 (-1%)
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Miriam Bulgaru 29¢ 30¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+2%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Noir Esports 22¢ 50¢ $26 $60 +$34 (+127%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 27¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) Chivas Esports 24¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $32 +$68 +216%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $93 +$107 +114%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $117 +$133 +114%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $208 +$192 +92%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $111 +$89 +79%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $132 +$118 +90%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $90 +$110 +122%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $9 $0 -5%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $115 +$85 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $167 +$183 +109%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 16 $122 −$120 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $168 +$132 +78%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 16 $214 −$214 -100%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $164 −$164 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $179 −$179 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $91 +$109 +119%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $54 +$147 +274%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $203 +$197 +97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $80 −$78 -98%
Popyrin vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $213 +$137 +65%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $113 +$12 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $89 +$161 +180%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $218 +$132 +61%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $164 −$164 -100%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 50¢ $5 58m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 50¢ $96 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $125 1h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $3 2h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Miriam Bulgaru 29¢ $1 2h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $14 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $28 4h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Miriam Bulgaru 29¢ $2 4h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Miriam Bulgaru 29¢ $2 4h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Miriam Bulgaru 29¢ $49 5h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $5 5h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $5 5h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Miriam Bulgaru 29¢ $21 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $28 5h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $8 5h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Phantom 40¢ $106 6h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 31¢ $32 6h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $9 6h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $2 7h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 41¢ $83 9h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Team Nemesis 20¢ $20 9h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 59¢ $62 9h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 24¢ $24 12h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 46¢ $93 12h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 21¢ $8 12h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 21¢ $9 12h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 57¢ $115 21h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $117 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $856.86 · official $856.86 (match) · 280 history records