Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:28:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3b1…91cd other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$18
world 31% −$1
sports 4% $0
culture 4% −$3
politics 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -8.2% -16.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -8.2% -16.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
all 44 -5.2% -14.3% 20% 2% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 2% -11.4%
10% -22.5% 0% -19.9%
15% -30.0% 0% -27.6%
20% -36.8% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage308d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $46 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $42 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $57 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 30 $16 $0 -1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 30 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $40 −$20 -50%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $24 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 26 $23 $0 -1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $72 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $108 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Germany recognize Palestine in 2025? Nov 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $1 $0 +15%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $2 $0 -3%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 21 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 3h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $28 21h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $12 21h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 26h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $42 44h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $46 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $47 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $46 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $46 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $44 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $44 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $9 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $33 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $43 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $44 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $2 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $2 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $7 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $33 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 332 history records