Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3b7…5bdc sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,764 (+6%) realized +$2,764 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate86%24W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$1,603per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$573
7 days+$2,202
14 days+$2,639
30 days+$2,639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$2,196
sports 38% +$444
crypto 9% +$51
world 2% +$89
politics 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.2% -10.6% 91% 22% -4.8%
≤30d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 92% 25% -4.1%
≤90d 27 -0.5% -10.0% 89% 30% -3.9%
all 28 -4.1% -13.2% 86% 29% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 29% -4.0%
10% -21.5% 11% -13.2%
15% -29.1% 4% -21.6%
20% -36.1% 4% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,795) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$217 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.16 per $1 lost it wins $4.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,764
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses24 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,603
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $959 +$52 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $922 +$89 +10%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $4,328 +$43 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3,375 +$952 +28%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $789 −$777 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $2,475 +$163 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,897 +$51 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? Jun 25 $631 +$44 +7%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $714 +$62 +9%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $1,669 +$161 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,124 +$97 +9%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $432 +$67 +16%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3,447 +$66 +2%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $3,311 +$138 +4%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $225 +$25 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $127 +$14 +11%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $637 +$32 +5%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $2,405 +$115 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2,881 +$97 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,795 +$233 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,335 +$228 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,314 +$259 +11%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,869 +$437 +23%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $33 +$25 +76%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $1,111 +$155 +14%
Will Trump say "El Salvador" during the State of the Union address? Feb 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,011 10m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $959 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 91¢ $463 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 91¢ $438 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 91¢ $110 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 83¢ $922 19h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4,371 20h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $3 21h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $3,207 21h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,118 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,328 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,247 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $336 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,793 28h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $789 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $0 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $133 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $97 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $300 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $111 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1,807 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $190 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 89¢ $296 44h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 90¢ $398 44h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1,780 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $3,675 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $222 47h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $776 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,830 2d
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? BUY Yes 92¢ $85 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records