Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E3
0xe3b7…7611
other · 116 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$998 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$997 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,219
Realized−$997
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses26 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
Avg bet$432
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$16
30 days−$1,222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,220 $1,219 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,568 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $990 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 19 $1,206 −$1,206 -100%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3,101 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,142 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,769 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $893 −$1 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 11 $470 +$677 +144%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $457 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $474 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $482 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,423 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $483 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $464 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $459 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $493 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $940 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $956 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Finau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $472 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $448 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $467 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $578 −$1 -0%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 22 $470 $0 -0%
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $460 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 21 $462 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $448 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $469 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $485 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $450 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Mar 18 $296 −$4 -1%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 38% −$24
other 37% +$502
sports 16% −$1,439
world 5% −$37
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,220 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,172 2h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,173 5h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,630 21h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,632 22h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,566 24h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,568 26h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,486 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,488 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $989 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $619 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $990 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $620 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,046 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,048 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,155 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,157 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,302 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,304 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 16d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 23d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,206 37d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 50d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 51d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $875 51d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $876 51d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,112 52d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,113 52d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $794 53d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $795 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 17% 0% -18.6%
≤90d 66 -18.8% -26.5% 9% 3% -12.1%
all 115 -5.4% -14.4% 23% 11% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 11% -11.4%
10% -22.6% 11% -19.8%
15% -30.1% 10% -27.6%
20% -36.9% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,218.94 · official $1,218.94 (match) · 317 history records