Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3bb…e26b sports 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$931 (-5%) realized −$930 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%73W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$168
14 days−$429
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$792
other 3% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -26.6% -33.6% 50% 50% -29.3%
≤30d 26 -8.3% -17.0% 46% 46% -17.2%
≤90d 80 -7.2% -16.0% 56% 55% -12.6%
all 133 -9.7% -18.3% 55% 54% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 54% -14.2%
10% -26.1% 53% -22.4%
15% -33.2% 47% -29.9%
20% -39.8% 26% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$119 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$930
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses73 / 60
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage169d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $166 $165 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $135 +$65 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $139 −$138 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $69 −$68 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $145 +$55 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $129 +$71 +55%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $131 +$69 +52%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $133 −$132 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $195 −$192 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $149 −$146 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $98 −$96 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $163 +$237 +146%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $93 −$92 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $70 −$70 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $89 −$88 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $72 +$130 +180%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $75 +$125 +165%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $35 −$34 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $79 +$121 +152%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $93 +$107 +114%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $105 +$95 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $117 −$116 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 29 $118 +$87 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $85 −$84 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $77 −$76 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $91 −$90 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $91 +$109 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $95 +$105 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $137 −$136 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $129 −$128 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $103 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $133 +$67 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $125 −$124 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $157 +$43 +27%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $247 +$53 +21%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $129 −$128 -99%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $263 +$137 +52%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $83 −$82 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $145 +$55 +38%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 06 $64 +$36 +57%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 05 $145 +$55 +38%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $145 +$55 +38%
Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $121 +$79 +65%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $57 +$43 +76%
Suns vs. Thunder May 01 $103 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $167 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 31h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $139 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 34¢ $69 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $145 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 6d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $129 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $131 8d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 66¢ $25 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 66¢ $108 9d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $28 10d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $167 10d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $149 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $98 12d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $163 13d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE 46¢ $93 14d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $21 15d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $49 15d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Global Esports 44¢ $89 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $72 19d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY San Diego Padres 34¢ $35 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $75 21d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $79 22d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 46¢ $93 23d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $105 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $117 25d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $118 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $85 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $77 28d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $115 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.00 · official $165.00 (match) · 228 history records