trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 50% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +5.0% | -5.0% | 64% | 18% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -6.2% | -15.2% | 62% | 19% | -11.1% |
| all | 16 | -6.2% | -15.2% | 62% | 19% | -11.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.2% | 19% | -11.1% |
| 10% | -23.3% | 12% | -19.6% |
| 15% | -30.7% | 12% | -27.4% |
| 20% | -37.5% | 6% | -34.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $59 | $60 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $57 | $57 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $56 | $56 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 25 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Jun 25 | $48 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $58 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 25 | $65 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 07 | $2 | +$1 | +56% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 07 | $4 | −$1 | -25% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 07 | $18 | −$3 | -14% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 07 | $18 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +9% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 26 | $2 | $0 | +20% |
| Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch? | May 11 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Hornets | May 11 | $2 | +$1 | +39% |
| Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? | May 11 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 11 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? | May 11 | $3 | −$2 | -99% |