Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3be…0d2b weather 50 markets active 3d ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-4%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%15W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$13
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -10.9% -19.4% 27% 27% -17.4%
≤30d 50 -12.7% -21.0% 30% 30% -19.1%
≤90d 50 -12.7% -21.0% 30% 30% -19.1%
all 50 -12.7% -21.0% 30% 30% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 30% -19.1%
10% -28.5% 28% -26.8%
15% -35.5% 28% -33.9%
20% -41.8% 24% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $2 +$3 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $1 +$6 +535%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 9? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$5 +418%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 27? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 1? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 1? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 18? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 1? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 8? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$4 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 1? Jun 02 $3 +$5 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on May 18? May 20 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 99¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 47¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 10? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records