Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3bf…99d3 crypto 654 markets active 0h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,564 (-6%) realized −$1,564 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%204W / 424L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$6,682
14 days−$6,682
30 days−$6,682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$379
other 9% −$326
finance 7% −$460
world 5% −$421
sports 4% +$382
politics 0% −$67
economics 0% −$21
weather 0% −$30
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 389 -55.0% -59.3% 17% 15% -57.8%
≤30d 389 -55.0% -59.3% 17% 15% -57.8%
≤90d 516 -11.7% -20.1% 32% 30% -15.7%
all 628 -5.4% -14.4% 32% 30% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 30% -14.8%
10% -22.6% 29% -22.9%
15% -30.0% 28% -30.4%
20% -36.9% 25% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$27 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$1,564
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses204 / 424
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)628 / 654
History coverage182d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 628 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$41 +156%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$60 +409%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$56 +214%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +138%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $109 +$108 +99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $17 −$6 -37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$10 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$20 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$28 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$24 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $71 −$27 -38%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026-06 Jun 17 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $28 −$5 -17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $71 −$12 -17%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $42 +$62 +146%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $41 +$56 +137%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $62 −$43 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $41 −$14 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$28 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $67 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $75 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 37m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2 BUY 2¢ $3 38m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 14¢ $10 39m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a BUY 1¢ $5 49m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia a BUY 1¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $28 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $25 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.85 · official $76.96 · 1799 history records