Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3c7…c885 other 15 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$65 (-16%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$5
crypto 17% −$66
sports 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -31.2% -37.8% 40% 27% -24.8%
≤30d 15 -31.2% -37.8% 40% 27% -24.8%
≤90d 15 -31.2% -37.8% 40% 27% -24.8%
all 15 -31.2% -37.8% 40% 27% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 27% -24.8%
10% -43.7% 20% -32.0%
15% -49.1% 13% -38.6%
20% -54.1% 13% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 −$66 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 +$4 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 +$38 +92%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$28 -69%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 +$7 +10%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -78%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +63%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $39 −$12 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $69 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $28 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 39¢ $11 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records