Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3c8…0af5 other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$312 (+6%) realized +$318 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate21%25W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$331
14 days+$428
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$373
world 22% −$14
politics 13% −$47
tech 10% −$7
crypto 4% +$4
finance 3% −$28
economics 3% −$22
culture 2% −$4
sports 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.0% -21.3% 17% 11% +13.4%
≤30d 51 -22.7% -30.0% 12% 10% +7.0%
≤90d 109 -14.1% -22.3% 21% 6% -4.0%
all 117 -13.2% -21.4% 21% 6% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 6% -4.9%
10% -28.9% 6% -14.0%
15% -35.8% 4% -22.3%
20% -42.1% 4% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$9 · ×4.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$318
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses25 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage160d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-55%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? Jun 28 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $103 +$6 +6%
Will Clay Jenkins win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election? Jun 27 $7 −$4 -54%
Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? Jun 27 $6 −$4 -69%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 27 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Mo Ivory win the 2026 Fulton Commission Chair election? Jun 27 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 27 $5 $0 -3%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? Jun 27 $10 $0 -4%
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? Jun 27 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 27 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Minerva Torres Shelton win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election Jun 27 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 27 $1 $0 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $423 +$297 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $229 +$321 +140%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 22 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 22 $3 $0 -0%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 22 $31 $0 -2%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 22 $12 $0 -4%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 22 $6 $0 -4%
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 22 $5 $0 -8%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju Jun 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,110 Week of June 22 202 Jun 22 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,080 Week of June 22 202 Jun 22 $11 −$1 -6%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Jun 22 $4 $0 -5%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $43 −$19 -44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $128 +$372 +291%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 17 $4 $0 -3%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $41 −$2 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 06 $7 $0 -2%
Will Designer Brands (DBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 06 $6 $0 -7%
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 06 $15 −$4 -24%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $4 +$1 +31%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $1 $0 -9%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -23%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 02 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $92 2h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL Yes 80¢ $16 25h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $109 30h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $93 30h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 30h
Will Clay Jenkins win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election? SELL No 16¢ $3 46h
Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? SELL No 10¢ $2 46h
Will Ricardo Samaniego win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election? BUY No 31¢ $6 46h
Will Clay Jenkins win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election? BUY No 34¢ $7 46h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 55¢ $27 46h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 55¢ $28 46h
Will Mo Ivory win the 2026 Fulton Commission Chair election? SELL No 10¢ $2 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL No 24¢ $5 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 24¢ $5 46h
Will Mo Ivory win the 2026 Fulton Commission Chair election? BUY No 26¢ $5 46h
Will Bryce Dettloff win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 47h
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 47h
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? SELL No 35¢ $12 47h
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 47h
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03? BUY No 36¢ $13 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 47h
Will Minerva Torres Shelton win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election SELL Yes 18¢ $3 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 47h
Will Minerva Torres Shelton win the 2026 El Paso County Judge election BUY Yes 27¢ $5 47h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 56¢ $12 47h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 56¢ $13 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 47h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 56¢ $4 47h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 56¢ $4 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.79 · official $3.79 (match) · 391 history records