Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3c9…e0f1 sports 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,524 (-9%) realized −$2,495 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate42%70W / 96L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$276
7 days+$244
14 days−$525
30 days−$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1,962
sports 32% −$636
crypto 15% +$9
politics 1% $0
world 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -19.9% -27.5% 16% 14% +9.5%
≤30d 103 -19.4% -27.1% 21% 18% -24.0%
≤90d 109 -19.6% -27.3% 24% 17% -43.0%
all 166 -14.1% -22.3% 42% 16% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 16% -18.1%
10% -29.8% 13% -25.9%
15% -36.5% 11% -33.1%
20% -42.8% 8% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$35 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$2,495
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses70 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)166 / 169
History coverage270d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $299 $271 −$29 (-10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$5 -52%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $325 +$321 +99%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 −$2 -16%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 $0 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 −$3 -4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $102 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -28%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$8 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$4 -35%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +102%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $302 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 11h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 66¢ $49 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 13h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 13h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $5 14h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $2 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $646 18h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $305 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 60¢ $8 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 22h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $98 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 41h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 91¢ $100 44h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 44h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes $1 44h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.07 · official $283.87 · 401 history records