Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E3 0xe3ca…188c other 63 markets active 10h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%13W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$27
politics 6% −$10
other 4% −$3
economics 1% $0
sports 1% +$18
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +1.7% -8.0% 11% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 49 -2.2% -11.5% 20% 14% -9.0%
all 63 -2.0% -11.4% 21% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 11% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 10% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 8% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses13 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage592d
Avg bet$496
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $21 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $11 +$3 +32%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $88 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $93 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $90 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $86 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $86 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 24 $190 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $192 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $91 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 19 $93 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $7 +$5 +70%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $10 +$8 +83%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $8 +$8 +101%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5 Apr 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 06 $23 +$22 +96%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 30 $40 +$7 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei Mar 30 $25 +$23 +92%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 25 $24 +$1 +3%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 25 $48 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 9h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 10h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 24h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 27h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 9d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 75¢ $11 9d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 18d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records