Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

E3 0xe3cb…ac21 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$23,070 (+16%) realized +$21,488 · open +$1,582

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip

Net edge+24%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%9W / 3L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$8,219per market

Trades / day93.0pace

Fees−$714est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$97,540now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+61.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+78.4%	+61.4%	75%	75%	+39.0%
≤30d	12	+78.4%	+61.4%	75%	75%	+39.0%
≤90d	12	+78.4%	+61.4%	75%	75%	+39.0%
all	12	+78.4%	+61.4%	75%	75%	+39.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover93.0 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+61.4%	75%	+39.0%
10%	+45.9%	67%	+25.7%
15% ← realistic here	+31.8%	58%	+13.5%
20%	+18.9%	50%	+2.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +78% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +26% → late +131% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$3,569 vs −$1,533 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.98 per $1 lost it wins $6.98

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$97,540

Realized+$21,488

Unrealized+$1,582

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses9 / 3

Est. fees paid−$714

Open positions6

Markets (closed)12 / 18

History coverage1d

Avg bet$8,219

Trades / day93.0

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	85¢	86¢	$80,089	$80,761	+$672 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	No	47¢	46¢	$4,700	$4,650	−$50 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	No	49¢	59¢	$3,283	$3,923	+$640 (+19%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	26¢	28¢	$3,381	$3,620	+$240 (+7%)
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score	No	40¢	40¢	$3,052	$3,014	−$38 (-1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	37¢	40¢	$1,453	$1,571	+$118 (+8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$1,294	+$1,866	+144%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$5,307	+$9,693	+183%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$3,537	+$454	+13%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$3,822	+$3,402	+89%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$2,351	−$2,069	-88%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	Jun 25	$257	+$1,144	+445%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$23,511	+$6,825	+29%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$5,284	+$3,128	+59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$2,085	−$2,085	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 25	$1,128	+$518	+46%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 25	$2,308	+$5,092	+221%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$450	−$444	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	39¢	$1,986	1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	38¢	$281	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	88¢	$383	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	88¢	$3,154	1h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	40¢	$3,107	2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	52¢	$3,165	3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	40¢	$981	3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	30¢	$45	11h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	29¢	$40	11h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	53¢	$657	11h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	41¢	$313	11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	49¢	$3,333	11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	85¢	$30,489	17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	85¢	$49,964	17h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	37¢	$1,481	17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	47¢	$4,775	17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	35¢	$5,307	17h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$3,456	17h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Mexico	16¢	$22	20h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Mexico	16¢	$23	20h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Mexico	19¢	$0	20h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Mexico	19¢	$91	20h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Mexico	19¢	$23	20h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Mexico	19¢	$28	20h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Mexico	19¢	$23	20h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)	BUY Mexico	19¢	$47	20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	47¢	$19	20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	47¢	$130	20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	45¢	$1	20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	45¢	$145	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97,539.55 · official $97,499.35 (match) · 105 history records