Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3cc…379f other 209 markets active 14h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$475 (-19%) realized −$422 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%29W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day45.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$457
14 days−$457
30 days−$457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$926
sports 35% +$442
crypto 3% −$9
world 2% −$10
politics 1% +$2
tech 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -14.7% -22.8% 25% 24% -29.4%
≤30d 116 -14.7% -22.8% 25% 24% -29.4%
≤90d 116 -14.7% -22.8% 25% 24% -29.4%
all 116 -14.7% -22.8% 25% 24% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 24% -29.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 22% -36.2%
15% -36.9% 22% -42.3%
20% -43.1% 22% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$422
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses29 / 87
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions93
Markets (closed)116 / 209
History coverage7d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day45.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 93 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Will Diogo Costa record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 58¢ 26¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+37%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Unai Simón win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will Thibaut Courtois win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June? Yes 13¢ 27¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
Will Türkiye be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+97%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 7¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $36 −$18 -50%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$4 +134%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 −$5 -53%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +344%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 +$8 +786%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1374%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +424%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 13¢ $1 13h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 13h
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 13h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 87¢ $2 17h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 17h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 17h
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 17h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 17h
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 12¢ $3 17h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 17h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 17h
Will Unai Simón win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 17h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 86¢ $9 17h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 21h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $1 21h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 21h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 81¢ $8 32h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 32h
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 32h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.42 · official $173.56 (match) · 375 history records