Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:18:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3ce…fa8d sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$895 (+4%) realized +$903 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%24W / 25L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,572now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$541
sports 26% +$674
world 0% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 49% -4.3%
≤30d 49 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 49% -4.3%
≤90d 49 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 49% -4.3%
all 49 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 49% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 49% -4.3%
10% -25.0% 45% -13.4%
15% -32.3% 41% -21.8%
20% -38.9% 31% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$191 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2,572
Realized+$903
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions12
Markets (closed)49 / 69
History coverage5d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,300 $1,314 +$14 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 55¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-4%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Argentina to win the second half? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 50¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 22¢ 20¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 +$131 +129%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 +$80 +79%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $203 +$205 +101%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $254 −$254 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $202 −$199 -99%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $102 +$98 +97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $203 −$160 -79%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $101 +$70 +69%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $102 +$109 +107%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$67 -67%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $102 −$45 -44%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$62 -61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,007 +$241 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 +$103 +101%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $304 +$262 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,023 +$1,203 +60%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $694 +$1,010 +146%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $533 +$159 +30%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2,792 −$2,346 -84%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $424 −$277 -65%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$59 -58%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,021 +$1,056 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $101 +$44 +44%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $192 +$129 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$52 -52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $122 −$60 -49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5,117 +$614 +12%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $71 +$25 +36%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $47 +$21 +44%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 −$13 -29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $212 +$97 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? A BUY 51¢ $507 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 32¢ $255 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 11¢ $103 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 27¢ $153 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 22¢ $31 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 48¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 14¢ $36 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $31 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $152 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $101 1h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $101 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $102 4h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 1¢ $3 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $202 6h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 6h
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,571.85 · official $3,736.85 · 135 history records