Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E3 0xe3cf…9dc0 other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$272 (+3%) realized +$222 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%28W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$4,084now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$688
7 days+$237
14 days+$31
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$313
sports 21% +$173
world 4% +$113
crypto 3% +$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 50% -3.0%
≤30d 53 -2.0% -11.4% 53% 53% -7.4%
≤90d 53 -2.0% -11.4% 53% 53% -7.4%
all 53 -2.0% -11.4% 53% 53% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 53% -7.4%
10% -19.9% 53% -16.3%
15% -27.6% 51% -24.3%
20% -34.7% 40% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$116 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$4,084
Realized+$222
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses28 / 25
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions11
Markets (closed)53 / 64
History coverage18d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $604 $809 +$205 (+34%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 80¢ $424 $599 +$175 (+41%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $634 $467 −$167 (-26%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $410 $421 +$11 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $409 $385 −$24 (-6%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $343 $346 +$4 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $417 $291 −$126 (-30%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 24¢ $279 $266 −$13 (-5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $269 $256 −$13 (-5%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Under 21¢ 22¢ $130 $133 +$3 (+2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $115 $111 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $86 +$56 +64%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 26 $103 +$200 +194%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $93 +$160 +172%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $227 +$167 +74%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $41 +$55 +135%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $132 −$130 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $137 +$189 +138%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $74 +$41 +56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $96 +$56 +59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $117 −$117 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $105 +$57 +54%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $115 +$54 +47%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $157 +$88 +56%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $59 +$125 +212%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $579 +$267 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $89 +$67 +75%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $182 −$182 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $132 −$132 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $134 +$89 +67%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $90 +$38 +43%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $167 +$231 +138%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $252 +$198 +79%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $84 +$36 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $84 +$36 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $133 +$69 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $121 +$126 +104%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 +$106 +100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $184 +$170 +92%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $143 +$96 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $164 −$164 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $133 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $348 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $115 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $415 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $269 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $23 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $56 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $4 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $6 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $10 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $182 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $137 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $86 4h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $31 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $0 6h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $0 6h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $0 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 98¢ $253 10h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) SELL Senegal 99¢ $394 10h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) SELL Senegal 40¢ $96 10h
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) SELL Senegal 40¢ $0 10h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $132 11h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $19 17h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 57¢ $240 21h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 57¢ $56 21h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 57¢ $10 22h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 57¢ $12 22h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 57¢ $4 22h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 57¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,084.10 · official $4,084.10 (match) · 229 history records