Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3d0…4d12 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,438 (+5%) realized +$1,421 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%27W / 11L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$671per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$1,762
other 12% −$221
politics 1% −$76
sports 0% −$1
finance 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.9% +11.2% 100% 100% +11.2%
≤30d 1 +22.9% +11.2% 100% 100% +11.2%
≤90d 7 +28.5% +16.2% 100% 71% +6.2%
all 38 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 29% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 29% -4.6%
10% -20.3% 16% -13.7%
15% -28.0% 11% -22.1%
20% -35.1% 5% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,030) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$56 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.26 per $1 lost it wins $3.26
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized+$1,421
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses27 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage595d
Avg bet$671
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 99¢ $150 $167 +$17 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $168 +$38 +23%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $228 +$73 +32%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 15 $210 +$18 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 27 $196 +$15 +8%
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? Apr 08 $5 +$5 +104%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 08 $70 +$9 +13%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $100 +$11 +11%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 09 $100 −$40 -40%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $177 +$33 +19%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Mar 01 $96 +$82 +85%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $94 +$2 +2%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 18 $200 −$28 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 06 $1,030 +$28 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 06 $200 +$7 +4%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Feb 03 $50 −$3 -7%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $898 +$66 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $1,594 +$44 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 31 $548 +$4 +1%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $175 −$76 -44%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? Jan 30 $235 +$5 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29? Jan 29 $50 −$48 -96%
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? Jan 29 $100 +$11 +11%
Will "11.22.63" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 20, 2026 Jan 19 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 16 $183 −$22 -12%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $82 +$3 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 14 $200 +$11 +6%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jan 03 $100 +$43 +43%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 01 $1,282 +$158 +12%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Nov 29 $96 +$4 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 27 $1,291 +$87 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Oct 27 $1,246 +$45 +4%
Tigers vs. Mariners Oct 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 01 $2,229 +$228 +10%
Boxing: Will Usyk win by Decision? Jul 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jul 02 $4,498 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 13 $2,268 −$90 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $4,141 +$403 +10%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 20 $1,434 +$583 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 91¢ $206 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $168 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $166 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $300 38d
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $228 39d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $228 39d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $210 45d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $196 63d
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 77d
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 77d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? SELL Yes 79¢ $79 77d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 105d
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $100 105d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? SELL Yes 48¢ $60 106d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 106d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL No 90¢ $210 106d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 76¢ $177 107d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $96 123d
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $96 123d
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $94 126d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $94 126d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $575 138d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $78 138d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $484 139d
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $47 140d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $127 141d
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 141d
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $200 142d
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 143d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $903 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.95 · official $166.95 (match) · 110 history records