Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3d2…a32d other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-58%) realized −$86 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip
Net edge-81%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$57
world 27% −$50
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-80.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -78.0% -80.1% 17% 17% -60.7%
≤30d 6 -78.0% -80.1% 17% 17% -60.7%
≤90d 6 -78.0% -80.1% 17% 17% -60.7%
all 6 -78.0% -80.1% 17% 17% -60.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.1% 17% -60.7%
10% -82.0% 17% -64.5%
15% -83.7% 0% -67.9%
20% -85.3% 0% -71.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 35¢ 1¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $10 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $67 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $50 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.01 · official $10.01 (match) · 13 history records