Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3d7…7e67 sports 437 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$103 (-4%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate52%226W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$20
14 days+$27
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$95
other 28% −$10
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.5% -5.4% 97% 24% -5.2%
≤30d 98 +4.1% -5.8% 95% 17% -6.0%
≤90d 101 +3.3% -6.6% 93% 17% -6.4%
all 437 -6.1% -15.0% 52% 15% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 15% -13.0%
10% -23.2% 7% -21.3%
15% -30.6% 4% -28.9%
20% -37.4% 1% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses226 / 211
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)437 / 437
History coverage144d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 437 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Beatrise Zeltina Jun 21 $40 +$2 +4%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 21 $41 +$3 +7%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys Jun 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Hiromi Abe Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Chenting Zhu Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $10 +$1 +5%
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Linea Bajraliu Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Weronika Ewald Jun 19 $9 +$1 +7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Filiberto Fumagalli vs Seydina Andre Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Fang An Lin Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
ITF Kayseri: Felix Roussel vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
ITF Bucharest: Ilinca Sagmar vs Laura Brunkel Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
ITF Maanshan: Duckhee Lee vs Thanapet Chanta Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
ITF Irvine: Maria Aytoyan vs Caroline Driscoll Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
ITF Blois: Amandine Hesse vs Jasmijn Gimbrere Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
ITF Kayseri: Ilay Yoruk vs Lan Mi Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Lucie Havlickova vs Jana Kovackova Jun 11 $11 $0 +1%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
ITF Monastir: Lourdes Ayala vs Lucie Pawlak Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
ITF Decatur: Olivia Lincer vs Sophie Williams Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lina Glushko Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Tomas Martinez Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Martina Trevisan Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
ITF Madrid: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Alice Ferlito Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF San Gregorio: Gabriela Ce vs Beatrise Zeltina BUY Gabriela Ce 96¢ $40 1h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Jake Delaney 93¢ $41 7h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Evialina Laskevich 95¢ $40 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys BUY Toby Samuel 95¢ $10 22h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 94¢ $9 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $10 30h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Hiromi Abe BUY Dayeon Back 95¢ $10 31h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Chenting Zhu BUY Evialina Laskevich 95¢ $10 31h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 95¢ $10 44h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 95¢ $10 46h
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Linea Bajraliu BUY Lea Nilsson 95¢ $10 2d
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Weronika Ewald BUY Julie Pastikova 93¢ $9 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser BUY Jeline Vandromme 90¢ $10 2d
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Filiberto Fumagalli vs Seydina Andre BUY Filiberto Fumagalli 90¢ $9 3d
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Fang An Lin BUY Yuno Kitahara 93¢ $10 3d
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 97¢ $10 3d
ITF Kayseri: Felix Roussel vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine BUY Felix Roussel 91¢ $10 3d
ITF Bucharest: Ilinca Sagmar vs Laura Brunkel BUY Ilinca Sagmar 90¢ $10 4d
ITF Maanshan: Duckhee Lee vs Thanapet Chanta BUY Duckhee Lee 92¢ $10 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 88¢ $10 4d
Criollos de Caguas vs. Gigantes de Carolina BUY Criollos de Caguas 95¢ $10 4d
ITF Irvine: Maria Aytoyan vs Caroline Driscoll BUY Maria Aytoyan 93¢ $9 4d
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian BUY Alina Korneeva 94¢ $10 4d
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 95¢ $10 4d
ITF Blois: Amandine Hesse vs Jasmijn Gimbrere BUY Amandine Hesse 96¢ $10 5d
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva BUY JiaYi Wang 99¢ $10 5d
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka BUY Viola Turini 95¢ $10 5d
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Kilian Feldbausch 96¢ $10 5d
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Facundo Acosta 95¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.00 · official $42.00 (match) · 1122 history records