Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3da…c898 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$139 (-6%) realized −$122 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%45W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$70
14 days−$66
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$122
sports 42% −$334
crypto 8% −$22
world 2% −$10
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.0% -9.5% 57% 50% -17.3%
≤30d 21 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 52% -13.3%
≤90d 47 -15.4% -23.5% 45% 38% -16.0%
all 106 -15.3% -23.3% 42% 40% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 40% -19.8%
10% -30.7% 37% -27.5%
15% -37.4% 34% -34.5%
20% -43.5% 27% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses45 / 61
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 110
History coverage150d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $81 $64 −$17 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $173 +$22 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$43 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $90 +$56 +62%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $17 −$4 -26%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $47 −$13 -27%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 −$6 -30%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $22 +$7 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $11 +$12 +109%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $48 +$13 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 02 $10 +$4 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $25 +$40 +158%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $9 −$6 -61%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $4 +$5 +124%
Will Chaiany Andrade be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 22 $50 $0 +1%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters? Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $22 +$18 +80%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $29 +$54 +185%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $17 +$13 +74%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $5 +$5 +108%
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5 Mar 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jonas Sulzbach win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 25 $18 −$18 -99%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Mar 24 $10 −$1 -13%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-1.5) Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-21.5) Mar 23 $10 +$6 +64%
Miami Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Valentin Vacherot Mar 23 $5 +$5 +106%
Miami Open: Martin Landaluce vs Karen Khachanov Mar 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Nets vs. Kings Mar 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Miami Open: Jack Draper vs Reilly Opelka Mar 20 $2 +$6 +300%
Miami Open: Casper Ruud vs Ethan Quinn Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $83 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 78¢ $151 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $195 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $151 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $144 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $22 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY $5 11h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $28 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $90 11h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 11h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $34 11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 11h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $11 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 30¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $61 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND BUY $5 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 21¢ $5 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 31¢ $3 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 35¢ $5 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 67¢ $20 17d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.99 · official $68.99 · 421 history records