Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3db…74df crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$32 (+2%) realized +$69 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$113
politics 40% +$1
other 6% +$7
sports 1% −$2
culture 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 50% -34.5%
≤30d 10 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 50% -34.5%
≤90d 15 -18.6% -26.4% 53% 47% -31.0%
all 46 -22.7% -30.1% 52% 28% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 28% -13.3%
10% -36.8% 24% -21.6%
15% -42.9% 22% -29.2%
20% -48.5% 22% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage548d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 33¢ 4¢ $43 $6 −$37 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $41 +$30 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $55 −$53 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +77%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 +$8 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$11 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 11 $15 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 1? May 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi Apr 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 20 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Mar 20 $40 +$32 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 20 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 20 $50 +$42 +84%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 20 $40 +$32 +80%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Jazz vs. Timberwolves Mar 20 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 20 $20 −$20 -98%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 20 $40 +$31 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 20 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in Mar 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will "My Secret Santa" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (Dec Jan 21 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Dec 09 $13 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Dec 09 $108 +$104 +96%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Nov 12 $14 −$1 -10%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Nov 07 $14 $0 +1%
1,415+ Measles cases in U.S. by September 12? Sep 26 $14 $0 +0%
Record low border encounters in June? Sep 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ace Bailey play in the Jazz Summer League? Jul 14 $14 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31? Jul 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be the Democratic Party of Korea's candidate for pr May 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Apr 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $602 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $71 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $46 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $23 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $16 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.54 · official $120.59 · 126 history records