Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe3dc…cfd7 crypto 48 markets active 11h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%27W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,067now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$12
14 days+$10
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$26
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 -33.2% -39.6% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 20 -49.8% -54.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 45 -35.3% -41.5% 60% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -47.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -52.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -56.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,060) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$1,067
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses27 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage198d
Avg bet$448
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,062 $1,064 +$2 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,060 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,056 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,056 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,054 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,052 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,050 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 20? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? May 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 21? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 14? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 2? Mar 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $1,103 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $1,102 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on February 20? Feb 21 $1,098 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $1,094 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 18? Feb 18 $1,091 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 Feb 18 $1,086 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 16 Feb 17 $1,083 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on February 15? Feb 15 $1,077 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 14 Feb 15 $1,072 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 13 Feb 14 $1,067 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,060 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 11 Feb 12 $1,053 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Solana be less than $60 on February 10? Feb 11 $1,048 +$2 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$480 on the final day of trading of th Feb 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on February 6? Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $215 in January? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 30? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on January 23? Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 19? Dec 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,062 11h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1,060 35h
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,056 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,054 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,052 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29? BUY No 0¢ $2 19d
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 27d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 11? BUY No 0¢ $3 37d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 57d
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri BUY No 100¢ $3 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 12? BUY No 0¢ $2 66d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 72d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 85d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on March 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,103 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,102 116d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on February 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,098 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,094 118d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,091 119d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 BUY No 100¢ $1,086 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,067.08 · official $1,067.08 (match) · 85 history records