Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E3 0xe3dc…eaa8 sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,182 (+4%) realized +$11,735 · open −$3,553
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%39W / 49L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,576per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3,162est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,393now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18,668
7 days+$22,140
14 days+$22,140
30 days+$22,140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$5,365
other 4% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +14.7% +3.7% 49% 49% +4.2%
≤30d 49 +14.7% +3.7% 49% 49% +4.2%
≤90d 71 +4.1% -5.9% 45% 45% -3.6%
all 88 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 44% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 44% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 44% -15.0%
15% -26.5% 42% -23.2%
20% -33.7% 42% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$3,216) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3,088 vs −$2,279 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$1,393
Realized+$11,735
Unrealized−$3,553
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$3,162
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage125d
Avg bet$2,576
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Over 26¢ 38¢ $946 $1,389 +$443 (+47%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ $4,000 $4 −$3,996 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva Jun 24 $2,335 −$2,293 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Jun 24 $3,560 +$12,731 +358%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $3,063 +$7,018 +229%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter Jun 24 $3,064 −$3,000 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $4,058 +$3,627 +89%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 24 $3,954 −$3,900 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino Jun 24 $3,859 −$3,800 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones Jun 24 $3,059 +$5,762 +188%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 24 $3,072 −$3,000 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $4,081 +$8,348 +204%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley Jun 24 $10 +$10 +101%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens Jun 24 $3,033 +$1,724 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 24 $3,265 −$3,200 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 24 $3,046 +$3,099 +102%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana Jun 24 $2,081 +$3,121 +150%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 24 $2,882 +$3,277 +114%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $1,751 −$1,729 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $5,068 −$5,000 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $2,310 +$4,505 +195%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $2,746 −$2,694 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $5,572 −$936 -17%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $3,640 −$3,597 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $4,079 +$4,639 +114%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $804 −$786 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $1,993 +$2,093 +105%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $2,393 −$2,350 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Felipe Meligeni Al Jun 22 $4,009 −$3,938 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 22 $3,057 +$5,237 +171%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zhizhen Zhang vs Henry Searle Jun 22 $3,102 −$3,102 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $798 −$7 -1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $3,001 +$3,155 +105%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 22 $1,985 −$1,974 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $2,558 −$2,500 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $3,041 +$2,508 +82%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 22 $3,062 −$3,062 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $2,023 −$2,000 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5,343 +$3,178 +60%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,026 +$1,519 +75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $3,045 +$2,996 +98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $2,036 +$2,931 +144%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $2,963 +$4,027 +136%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2,726 +$1,420 +52%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $4,373 +$1,262 +29%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2,987 +$2,307 +77%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,729 −$1,708 -99%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $869 −$852 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2,966 −$2,926 -99%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $614 2m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $352 3m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Caroline Werner 39¢ $2,335 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera SELL Marina Bassols Ribera 100¢ $16,291 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4,060 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic SELL Teodora Kostovic 100¢ $10,081 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Storm Hunter BUY Storm Hunter 28¢ $3,064 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 22¢ $3,071 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera BUY Marina Bassols Ribera 20¢ $489 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Gabriel Diallo 100¢ $7,684 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 30¢ $3,063 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai BUY Zhuoxuan Bai 54¢ $3,954 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Darja Semenistaja vs Nao Hibino BUY Nao Hibino 48¢ $3,859 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones SELL Anastasia Gasanova 100¢ $8,822 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones BUY Anastasia Gasanova 34¢ $3,059 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 19¢ $3,072 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 100¢ $12,429 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Gabriel Diallo 52¢ $4,058 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley SELL Fiona Crawley 100¢ $20 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens SELL Elena Pridankina 100¢ $4,757 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley BUY Fiona Crawley 49¢ $10 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia BUY Andrea Lazaro Garcia 32¢ $3,265 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens BUY Elena Pridankina 63¢ $3,033 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue SELL Katherine Sebov 100¢ $6,145 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue BUY Katherine Sebov 49¢ $3,046 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 100¢ $5,201 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 39¢ $2,081 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 32¢ $4,081 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin SELL Oceane Dodin 100¢ $6,160 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin BUY Oceane Dodin 46¢ $2,882 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,392.92 · official $1,392.92 (match) · 159 history records