Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3e3…3d1c crypto 509 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,168 (-8%) realized −$1,168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%142W / 369L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$129
14 days−$351
30 days−$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,790
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -69.1% -72.0% 15% 15% -62.9%
≤30d 214 -36.5% -42.5% 32% 30% -24.5%
≤90d 511 -24.3% -31.5% 28% 26% -20.4%
all 511 -24.3% -31.5% 28% 26% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 26% -20.4%
10% -38.0% 23% -28.0%
15% -44.0% 22% -35.0%
20% -49.5% 19% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$18 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses142 / 369
Open positions0
Markets (closed)511 / 509
History coverage106d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 511 Trades
no open positions (340 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$13 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $27 −$14 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$10 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$6 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $57 −$39 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $45 +$23 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $43 +$24 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$13 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1528 history records