Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3e3…a864 other 19 markets active 5h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-7%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$6
sports 10% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.4% -6.4% 46% 46% -18.9%
≤30d 13 +3.4% -6.4% 46% 46% -18.9%
≤90d 13 +3.4% -6.4% 46% 46% -18.9%
all 13 +3.4% -6.4% 46% 46% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 46% -18.9%
10% -15.4% 46% -26.6%
15% -23.6% 46% -33.7%
20% -31.1% 23% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 13¢ $1 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 36h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 36h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 36h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.75 · official $8.75 · 26 history records