Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

E3 0xe3e4…ae30 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$666 (-8%) realized −$666 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate48%11W / 12L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$381per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$531

7 days−$760

14 days−$760

30 days−$754

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)+13.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+78.7%	+61.6%	56%	44%	-30.2%
≤30d	13	+54.4%	+39.7%	62%	31%	-17.5%
≤90d	19	+20.1%	+8.7%	53%	26%	-18.0%
all	23	+25.6%	+13.7%	48%	26%	-17.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.7%	26%	-17.5%
10%	+2.8%	26%	-25.4%
15%	-7.1%	17%	-32.6%
20%	-16.2%	9%	-39.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

45% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$574) neutral

Persistence

early -11% → late +59% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$87 vs −$145 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.55 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$666

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses11 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 23

History coverage165d

Avg bet$381

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	Jun 18	$103	+$3	+3%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$18	+$182	+982%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 17	$92	−$90	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$9	−$8	-97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$573	+$194	+34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$549	+$251	+46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$932	−$930	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$577	−$574	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$487	+$213	+44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?	Jun 03	$657	−$11	-2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	May 29	$682	+$1	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	May 23	$2,433	+$9	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	May 19	$1,473	+$7	+0%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi	May 15	$40	−$24	-59%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	May 15	$20	+$1	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	May 14	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	May 14	$5	+$2	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	May 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	May 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Warriors vs. Clippers	Jan 04	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Jan 04	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Jan 04	$20	+$101	+507%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Jan 04	$25	−$25	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	SELL Yes	1¢	$2	39m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	SELL Yes	27¢	$22	49m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	SELL Yes	25¢	$81	1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$103	2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$92	15h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	9¢	$18	15h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	4¢	$9	15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	96¢	$767	21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$573	27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	93¢	$932	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$577	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$549	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$487	7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?	SELL No	95¢	$646	14d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?	BUY No	97¢	$657	18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL No	98¢	$683	20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY No	98¢	$682	23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL No	98¢	$542	25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL No	98¢	$246	25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY No	98¢	$785	26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL No	98¢	$589	27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY No	98¢	$585	27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL No	98¢	$276	27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL No	98¢	$31	27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL No	98¢	$10	27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL No	97¢	$2	27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL No	98¢	$266	27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY No	96¢	$167	28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY No	96¢	$49	29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY No	96¢	$5	29d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records