Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E3 0xe3e4…53ac sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$628 (-18%) realized −$628 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$304
7 days+$536
14 days+$536
30 days+$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$74
other 26% −$209
finance 14% −$492
crypto 8% +$101
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +27.0% +14.9% 48% 33% +25.0%
≤30d 21 +27.0% +14.9% 48% 33% +25.0%
≤90d 21 +27.0% +14.9% 48% 33% +25.0%
all 38 -5.2% -14.2% 39% 32% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 32% -27.8%
10% -22.4% 32% -34.7%
15% -29.9% 32% -41.0%
20% -36.8% 26% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$96 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$628
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage197d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $53 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $58 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -94%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$134 +188%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $45 +$55 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$156 +297%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 −$150 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $111 −$111 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $104 −$102 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $99 +$121 +122%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$159 +388%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $142 +$144 +101%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $106 +$447 +420%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 29? Jan 29 $492 −$492 -100%
Flyers vs. Blue Jackets Jan 29 $335 +$157 +47%
Avalanche vs. Senators Jan 29 $445 −$445 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $201 −$201 -100%
Devils vs. Kraken Jan 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: strongboys vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Jan 25 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jan 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $38 +$62 +163%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24? Jan 25 $20 +$18 +92%
Sporting CP vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $98 −$98 -100%
Flames vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Jan 11 $52 +$46 +89%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2025 MLS Cup? Dec 06 $25 +$11 +46%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 50¢ $52 12h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 50¢ $15 12h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 50¢ $2 12h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 50¢ $2 12h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 50¢ $2 12h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 50¢ $1 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $45 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $71 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 37h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $35 37h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $76 37h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $90 38h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $26 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records