Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E3 0xe3e4…8087 sports 573 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,857 (+11%) realized +$21,811 · open +$46
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate92%524W / 44L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$2,780est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$743
14 days+$1,233
30 days+$5,194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$14,842
other 3% +$8,739
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +5.1% -4.9% 95% 32% -0.5%
≤30d 106 +89.5% +71.5% 83% 45% +0.6%
≤90d 432 +63.8% +48.2% 91% 31% +1.0%
all 568 +56.1% +41.2% 92% 28% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.2% 28% +1.1%
10% ← realistic here +27.7% 20% -8.6%
15% +15.3% 15% -17.4%
20% +4.0% 12% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +95% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$276 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$1,078
Realized+$21,811
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses524 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$2,780
Open positions5
Markets (closed)568 / 573
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$345
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner SHISHKA 47¢ 50¢ $636 $669 +$33 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner SHISHKA 48¢ 50¢ $329 $339 +$11 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs OlyBet SB 48¢ 50¢ $54 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 50¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 Winner OlyBet SB 49¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 26 $11 $0 +2%
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $75 +$25 +33%
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 26 $11 $0 +2%
Petra Marcinko vs. Madison Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $4 $0 +2%
Wang vs. Ribera: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Melo/Molteni vs Buse/Darderi Jun 24 $299 +$76 +25%
Wang vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 24 $138 +$2 +1%
Daniel Altmaier vs. Zizou Bergs: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $12 $0 +2%
ITF Wuning: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Aoran Wang Jun 24 $8 $0 +2%
ITF Tarvisio: Luisa Meyer Auf Der Heide vs Emily Seibold Jun 24 $14 $0 +2%
ITF Maanshan: Xi Luo vs Jiayu Xu Jun 24 $588 +$18 +3%
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Hamad Medjedovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $330 +$48 +14%
Norrie vs. Navone: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $2 −$1 -76%
Kecmanovic vs. Medjedovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $2 +$1 +36%
Kecmanovic vs. Medjedovic: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $368 +$2 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Jones vs Carabelli Jun 22 $375 +$87 +23%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Jun 22 $966 +$20 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Kecmanovic vs Medjedovic Jun 22 $714 +$21 +3%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 22 $2,678 +$384 +14%
Kecmanovic vs. Medjedovic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $368 +$2 +0%
Jack Pinnington Jones vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $386 +$58 +15%
Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 20 $77 +$2 +2%
Halle Open (Doubles): Galloway/Peers vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $989 +$312 +32%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $628 +$97 +15%
Figueira Da Foz: Completed Match: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 17 $598 +$43 +7%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $3 +$2 +81%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $197 +$35 +18%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Halle Open, Qualification (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Galloway/Peers Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Libema Open (Doubles): Detiuc/Khromacheva vs Aoyama/Liang Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Tucuman (Doubles): Ambrogi/Zeitune vs Monzon/Villalon Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Leandro Riedi Jun 11 $1,780 +$9 +0%
Ilkley: Completed Match: Escobar/Kittay vs Riedi/Rocha Jun 11 $3 +$2 +49%
Ilkley (Doubles): Escobar/Kittay vs Riedi/Rocha Jun 11 $781 +$351 +45%
Set Handicap: Mboko/Williams (-1.5) vs Fernandez/Siegemund (+1.5) Jun 11 $356 +$138 +39%
ITF Decatur: Ena Koike vs Ana Grubor Jun 11 $191 +$2 +1%
Jacob Brumm vs. Marcel Latak: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $230 +$104 +45%
Set Handicap: Latak (-1.5) vs Brumm (+1.5) Jun 11 $139 +$36 +26%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Fernandez/Siegemund vs Mboko/Williams Jun 11 $49 +$5 +11%
ITF Wichita: Philip Sekulic vs Blake Ellis Jun 10 $228 +$27 +12%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - European Pro League Reg Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Toyama: Cheuk Ying Shek vs Kanon Sawashiro Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Map Handicap: Atreides (-1.5) vs SPARTA (+1.5) Jun 10 $46 −$46 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Michelsen vs Jodar Jun 10 $127 −$101 -79%
Liu vs. Uchijima: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Liu vs Uchijima Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Liu vs. Uchijima: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Liu vs. Uchijima: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY SHISHKA 47¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY SHISHKA 48¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY SHISHKA 48¢ $59 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner BUY SHISHKA 49¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner BUY SHISHKA 48¢ $331 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY SHISHKA 49¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY SHISHKA 47¢ $87 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY SHISHKA 46¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY SHISHKA 38¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY SHISHKA 38¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner BUY SHISHKA 48¢ $412 1h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 49¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 49¢ $2 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 49¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 48¢ $42 3h
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $11 25h
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 49¢ $11 25h
Petra Marcinko vs. Madison Keys: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 49¢ $4 25h
Marcinko vs. Keys: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 37¢ $75 25h
Wang vs. Ribera: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 2d
Daniel Altmaier vs. Zizou Bergs: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 49¢ $12 3d
Wang vs. Svitolina: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $138 3d
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Melo/Molteni vs Buse/Darderi BUY Buse/Darderi 39¢ $299 3d
ITF Maanshan: Xi Luo vs Jiayu Xu BUY Jiayu Xu 97¢ $588 3d
ITF Wuning: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Aoran Wang BUY Aoran Wang 49¢ $8 3d
ITF Tarvisio: Luisa Meyer Auf Der Heide vs Emily Seibold BUY Emily Seibold 49¢ $14 4d
Kecmanovic vs. Medjedovic: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 49¢ $368 5d
Kecmanovic vs. Medjedovic: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $368 5d
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Hamad Medjedovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 43¢ $330 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,077.84 · official $1,077.84 (match) · 3500 history records