Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe3e4…8d04 other 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,729 (+11%) realized +$10,762 · open −$3,033
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%90W / 137L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$11,068now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,586
7 days+$864
14 days+$895
30 days+$9,207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$529
world 32% +$5,011
politics 18% −$983
finance 6% +$528
crypto 5% −$843
economics 2% −$593
tech 2% +$2,439
sports 0% +$61
weather 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +4.2% -5.7% 51% 38% +1.0%
≤30d 73 +55.6% +40.8% 52% 41% +9.2%
≤90d 170 +18.1% +6.8% 42% 34% -6.0%
all 227 +21.9% +10.3% 40% 33% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.3% 33% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -0.3% 26% -11.7%
15% -9.9% 24% -20.3%
20% -18.7% 20% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$126 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$11,068
Realized+$10,762
Unrealized−$3,033
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses90 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions31
Markets (closed)227 / 260
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$278
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $3,348 $3,377 +$28 (+1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $1,980 $1,785 −$195 (-10%)
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30? No 92¢ 92¢ $923 $915 −$9 (-1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $803 $641 −$162 (-20%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $520 $625 +$105 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 20¢ 6¢ $1,976 $575 −$1,401 (-71%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 65¢ 74¢ $490 $555 +$65 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $347 $265 −$82 (-24%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $333 $258 −$75 (-23%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 9¢ 3¢ $841 $247 −$594 (-71%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $242 $246 +$4 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $254 $241 −$13 (-5%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $320 $235 −$85 (-27%)
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $230 $190 −$40 (-17%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $242 $157 −$84 (-35%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $161 $144 −$18 (-11%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $133 $128 −$5 (-4%)
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? Yes 18¢ 56¢ $36 $112 +$76 (+211%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 54¢ $102 $107 +$5 (+5%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $62 $54 −$8 (-12%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $49 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $33 $41 +$8 (+25%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 58¢ 4¢ $522 $34 −$488 (-93%)
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No 69¢ 96¢ $22 $30 +$8 (+39%)
Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 15 $253 +$186 +74%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $68 −$28 -42%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 15 $535 +$181 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $677 +$303 +45%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $80 +$20 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $28 +$24 +86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $345 +$35 +10%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $47 −$46 -97%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 14 $163 −$18 -11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 14 $210 +$660 +314%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $390 +$20 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $356 +$234 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $180 −$130 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $103 −$68 -66%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 12 $61 +$2 +4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1,566 +$181 +12%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $610 +$230 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $248 +$12 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -73%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 11 $220 −$50 -23%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 10 $135 −$104 -77%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 10 $34 +$15 +44%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29? Jun 08 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 08 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? Jun 08 $442 −$386 -87%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 06 $101 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $12 −$10 -83%
Will Trump say "Surplus" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $189 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $259 −$141 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $425 +$223 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 03 $270 −$110 -41%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1,301 +$139 +11%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 31 $15 −$14 -95%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $1,883 +$287 +15%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 29 $78 +$61 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 10m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $39 11m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $12 11m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $1 12m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $14 12m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $0 12m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $39 12m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $48 15m
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 86¢ $167 17m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $8 19m
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 87¢ $2 25m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $8 37m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $19 39m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 39m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 39m
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 87¢ $16 44m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $40 48m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $28 49m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $7 49m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $3 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $21 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $9 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $45 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $25 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $63 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 87¢ $130 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $15 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 87¢ $22 1h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 87¢ $101 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $134 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,068.48 · official $11,067.80 (match) · 3500 history records