trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -2.8% | -12.1% | 20% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 22% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -0.4% | -9.8% | 33% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 27 | +20.8% | +9.3% | 56% | 15% | +5.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +9.3% | 15% | +5.2% |
| 10% | -1.2% | 15% | -4.9% |
| 15% | -10.7% | 15% | -14.1% |
| 20% | -19.5% | 11% | -22.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | No | 87¢ | 87¢ | $12 | $12 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 19 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $14 | −$2 | -14% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 17 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 27 | $53 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 23 | $27 | +$1 | +3% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 21 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 20 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 20 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 19 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 19 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 19 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 18 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will TikTok be banned again before May? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will 'Novocaine' gross less than 7m on opening weekend? | Mar 20 | $244 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 62°F or higher on March 17? | Mar 17 | $243 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? | Mar 15 | $241 | +$2 | +1% |
| Senators vs. Blackhawks | Mar 07 | $160 | +$82 | +52% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on March 3? | Mar 05 | $27 | +$131 | +488% |
| Will Trump say 'mandate' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the U | Mar 03 | $29 | $0 | -1% |
| TCU vs. West Virginia | Mar 03 | $21 | +$8 | +39% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | Feb 25 | $12 | +$9 | +80% |