Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E3 0xe3e8…8f5d other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$11
weather 39% +$5
crypto 10% +$1
sports 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 3 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 0% -7.4%
all 9 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 0% -8.4%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage105d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Is Earth flat? No 98¢ 98¢ $168 $168 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $165 +$4 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 29 $161 +$2 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 02 $154 +$6 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 27 $156 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on March 19? Mar 19 $149 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Kings Mar 18 $154 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 18? Mar 18 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on Mar Mar 16 $145 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 15 Mar 16 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Is Earth flat? BUY No 98¢ $168 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $168 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $165 30d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $163 30d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $161 57d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $154 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $157 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $156 100d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on March 19? SELL No 100¢ $7 101d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on March 19? SELL No 100¢ $30 101d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on March 19? SELL No 100¢ $73 101d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on March 19? SELL No 100¢ $40 101d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $149 101d
Spurs vs. Kings SELL Spurs 100¢ $154 102d
Spurs vs. Kings BUY Spurs 100¢ $154 102d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $25 102d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $17 102d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $114 102d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on Mar SELL No 100¢ $150 103d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on Mar BUY No 97¢ $145 103d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 15 BUY No 100¢ $150 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.13 · official $168.13 (match) · 24 history records