Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E3 0xe3eb…d78b crypto 474 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$918 (-7%) realized −$966 · open +$48
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%256W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day45.4pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$161
14 days+$195
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$41
crypto 20% −$65
world 6% −$51
other 4% −$122
politics 1% +$9
finance 1% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.3% -13.4% 39% 33% +2.1%
≤30d 67 +3.1% -6.7% 55% 54% -7.8%
≤90d 473 +9.5% -1.0% 54% 38% -10.6%
all 473 +9.5% -1.0% 54% 38% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.0% 38% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -10.4% 32% -19.2%
15% -19.1% 26% -27.0%
20% -27.0% 21% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$966
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses256 / 217
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)473 / 474
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day45.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 473 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 72¢ $83 $132 +$48 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $49 +$37 +74%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $113 −$113 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $118 +$91 +77%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 +$100 +100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $69 +$325 +473%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $75 +$92 +123%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $99 +$163 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $90 +$8 +9%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +145%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $24 +$36 +152%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $29 +$73 +249%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $2 +$1 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $83 −$83 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $66 −$66 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $183 −$183 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $82 −$82 -100%
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 26 $170 +$71 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot May 26 $161 +$23 +14%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) May 26 $57 −$57 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $19 +$11 +59%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $107 +$89 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $265 +$94 +35%
Roland Garros WTA: Hanyu Guo vs McCartney Kessler May 25 $64 +$35 +55%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $65 +$49 +75%
Roland Garros WTA: Talia Gibson vs Yulia Putintseva May 25 $79 −$34 -44%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino May 25 $70 +$24 +35%
Vicenza: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Raul Brancaccio May 25 $30 +$14 +48%
Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs Movistar KOI (+2.5) May 25 $31 +$11 +34%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 25 $49 +$43 +88%
Kosice: Taro Daniel vs Oleg Prihodko May 25 $184 +$138 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $85 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $86 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $48 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $49 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Over $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $27 3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic $3 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Over $1 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $104 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $137 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $96 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $113 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $210 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $117 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $100 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $393 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 69¢ $167 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 29¢ $1 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 30¢ $74 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $9 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $58 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.51 · official $131.51 (match) · 3500 history records