Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E3 0xe3ee…881c other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$126 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$506
sports 47% +$395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 19% 19% -7.6%
≤30d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 19% 19% -7.6%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 19% 19% -7.6%
all 16 +0.2% -9.3% 19% 19% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 19% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 19% -16.5%
15% -25.9% 19% -24.6%
20% -33.2% 19% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$42 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$840
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions18
Markets (closed)16 / 34
History coverage2d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-6%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-8%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $130 $45 −$85 (-65%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-37%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 +$432 +468%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $146 −$142 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $106 −$103 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$79 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$43 +528%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $72 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $524 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $79 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $78 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $38 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $42 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 22h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 23h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 23h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 23h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $840.15 · official $838.15 (match) · 50 history records