Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E3 0xe3f0…9018 politics 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$1
politics 31% −$4
culture 12% −$2
sports 9% −$2
world 8% −$1
economics 7% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$737) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage87d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $1,118 −$2 -0%
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 28 $1,068 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i May 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? May 03 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $689 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 02 $76 $0 -0%
Will New York Jets win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $681 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $784 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $737 −$2 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $138 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,116 9m
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $54 26m
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $17 36m
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 51m
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $14 59m
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $786 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $236 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,023 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 53d
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $34 53d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $44 53d
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $15 54d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $9 54d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 54d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $13 54d
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $19 54d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $22 54d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 56d
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $764 56d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 56d
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $737 56d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $19 56d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $748 56d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 56d
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $735 56d
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 56d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $507 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records