Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E3 0xe3f0…b619 weather 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-8%) realized −$14 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%17W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% −$20
crypto 9% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.4% -9.8% 75% 75% -5.0%
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.8% 75% 75% -5.0%
≤90d 52 -5.1% -14.1% 29% 29% -15.5%
all 56 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 30% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 30% -15.5%
10% -20.1% 21% -23.6%
15% -27.8% 18% -31.0%
20% -34.9% 14% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 39
Open positions4
Markets (closed)56 / 60
History coverage113d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? No 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? No 87¢ 64¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 78¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? No 79¢ 22¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 24 Apr 23 $3 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 24? Apr 23 $3 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 24? Apr 23 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 24? Apr 23 $3 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 23 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 24 Apr 23 $3 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 24? Apr 23 $3 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 24? Apr 23 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 24? Apr 23 $3 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 24? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 23? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 23? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 23? Apr 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 23? Apr 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 22? Apr 22 $2 +$3 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 22? Apr 22 $3 +$9 +289%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 23? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 22? Apr 22 $3 +$26 +956%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 22? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 22? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 22? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 22? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 22? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 21? Apr 21 $3 +$5 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 21? Apr 21 $3 +$13 +426%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on April 21? Apr 21 $3 −$2 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 21 Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 21? Apr 20 $3 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 21? Apr 20 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on April 21? Apr 20 $3 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 21? Apr 20 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 21? Apr 20 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 21 Apr 20 $3 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 21? Apr 20 $3 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21? Apr 20 $3 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $10 35h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 66¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 58¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 9? BUY No 71¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 30d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 24 SELL Yes 18¢ $2 53d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 24? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 24? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on April 24? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 24? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 54d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ap SELL Yes 7¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 24 SELL Yes 5¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 24? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 54d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 24? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 54d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 24? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.64 · official $25.64 (match) · 138 history records