Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3f9…b54e sports 337 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$194 (+5%) realized +$194 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%184W / 149L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$90
14 days+$89
30 days+$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$138
other 20% +$13
politics 9% +$13
world 5% +$43
crypto 4% +$4
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +9.4% -1.0% 63% 57% +3.4%
≤30d 199 +11.4% +0.8% 60% 53% +0.8%
≤90d 327 +6.0% -4.1% 55% 47% -4.7%
all 333 +6.4% -3.7% 55% 48% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 48% -4.6%
10% -12.9% 40% -13.7%
15% -21.3% 32% -22.0%
20% -29.0% 25% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses184 / 149
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)333 / 337
History coverage100d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 52¢ 68¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $35 +$25 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$20 +99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +18%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $45 +$17 +38%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$1 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$13 -88%
Will Elliot Anderson join Manchester City? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -68%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $15 +$6 +42%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$4 +85%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 +$3 +67%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -85%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $20 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $5 +$4 +77%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +37%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Jun 18 $5 −$1 -27%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$4 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +129%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $35 +$25 +72%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +169%
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 16 $10 +$10 +99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $15 +$8 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $6 +$4 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$7 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $11 +$4 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $11 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $15 −$13 -87%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -9%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $11 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $60 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 63¢ $12 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $14 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 56¢ $11 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $62 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 76¢ $13 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 5h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $10 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $49 6h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $5 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No $2 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $20 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $5 7h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $5 7h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 51¢ $10 7h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 14h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $10 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $5 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $10 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $5 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $10 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 16h
Will Elliot Anderson join Manchester City? SELL Yes 96¢ $11 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.00 (match) · 1398 history records