Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E3 0xe3fc…a1d9 other 174 markets active 1d ago coverage 130d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$470 (+47%) realized +$470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%83W / 89L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$26
14 days−$21
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$339
crypto 25% −$38
politics 18% +$140
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+58.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +63.1% +47.6% 50% 50% +48.9%
≤30d 28 +56.7% +41.8% 36% 36% -12.5%
≤90d 124 +94.4% +75.9% 47% 44% +41.9%
all 172 +74.8% +58.1% 48% 41% +31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +58.1% 41% +31.6%
10% +43.0% 40% +19.0%
15% +29.2% 38% +7.5%
20% +16.5% 37% -3.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +107% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses83 / 89
Open positions2
Markets (closed)172 / 174
History coverage130d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+250%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$6 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 08 $14 −$11 -78%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 08 $8 −$3 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $10 +$14 +142%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 07 $0 +$1 +300%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$5 -78%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $0 +$2 +399%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $5 +$15 +281%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $0 +$5 +1337%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $10 +$10 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 19 $16 +$5 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 17? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 15 $2 +$3 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 14 $8 +$8 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 14 $8 +$130 +1558%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 11 $10 +$22 +211%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 13? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 10 $10 $0 -1%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on May 13? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 13? May 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 09 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 09 $8 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 08 $8 −$5 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $10 −$7 -65%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2 May 07 $0 $0 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C or below on May 8? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 35h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 38h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $27 3d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 5d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.04 · official $2.14 (match) · 1623 history records