Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E3 0xe3ff…805c sports 532 markets active 21h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$187,729 (-38%) realized −$191,179 · open +$3,450
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%152W / 371L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$940per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$688est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$14,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26,232
7 days+$21,232
14 days+$29,415
30 days+$26,761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$17,134
politics 41% −$206,611
crypto 4% −$6,705
other 3% +$6,556
world 0% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +88.3% +70.4% 50% 50% +121.8%
≤30d 15 +62.7% +47.2% 47% 47% +100.5%
≤90d 68 +43.3% +29.7% 32% 31% +59.6%
all 523 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 28% -45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 28% -45.3%
10% -18.5% 26% -50.6%
15% -26.4% 25% -55.4%
20% -33.6% 25% -59.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$595) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,190 vs −$1,009 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$14,160
Realized−$191,179
Unrealized+$3,450
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses152 / 371
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$688
Open positions9
Markets (closed)523 / 532
History coverage617d
Avg bet$940
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 523 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,188 $11,348 +$5,160 (+83%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $1,000 $1,024 +$24 (+2%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,300 $900 −$400 (-31%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $450 $378 −$72 (-16%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $249 −$51 (-17%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $400 $204 −$195 (-49%)
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $52 $36 −$15 (-30%)
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ $1,000 $2 −$998 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 281 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,022 +$2,575 +252%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,022 +$2,682 +262%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,025 +$4,531 +442%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5,538 +$14,832 +268%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,019 +$1,613 +158%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,027 −$1,000 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,020 +$1,921 +188%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $3,699 +$6,262 +169%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $2,041 −$2,000 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $612 −$600 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $55 −$54 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $409 −$400 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $408 −$400 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $407 −$400 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $195 +$1,082 +555%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 05 $424 −$345 -81%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 04 $359 −$350 -97%
76ers vs. Knicks May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $307 −$300 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $103 −$100 -97%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $204 +$408 +200%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $204 −$200 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $102 +$155 +152%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 02 $102 +$50 +48%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $102 +$201 +197%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $433 −$402 -93%
Suns vs. Thunder May 01 $200 −$33 -16%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $102 +$201 +197%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $170 −$130 -77%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $100 +$442 +442%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $176 −$172 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 27 $100 −$98 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 27 $100 −$97 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $300 −$293 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $330 +$272 +83%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $500 −$488 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $700 −$294 -42%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 23 $300 −$296 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $300 −$296 -99%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $300 −$242 -80%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $461 −$338 -73%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 22 $800 −$778 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 20h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 20h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 20h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 20h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 20h
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes $103 20h
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes $206 20h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 21h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $463 21h
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $10 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,024 26h
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 35h
Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $10 35h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,024 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,023 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,022 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,025 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,023 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,020 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,022 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $1,019 4d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $1,020 9d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $336 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $306 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $408 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,159.83 · official $14,159.83 (match) · 1382 history records